
Can Lebron James lead the Cavs to the NBA finals or will the superstar
be stopped short once again? (Creative Commons Licensed)
The Eastern Conference isn't quite as complicated as the West. Boston, Orlando and Cleveland are easily the top three seeds. Atlanta, Miami and Chicago form a definitive second tier. And Toronto looks like a bona fide playoff contender as well.
That leaves the eighth seed as the only playoff spot unaccounted for.
Who's going to get it? It's difficult to tell. There are three contenders as far as I'm concerned: Detroit, Philadelphia and Washington.
Detroit is playing well at the moment, but not well enough to inspire confidence in their postseason chances. Philly is a terrific offensive team, but their defense leaves much to be desired. And Washington has struggled recently, but can turn things around when Antawn Jamison returns from injury. Each has the potential to either thrive or crash and burn, making the chase for the eighth playoff spot in the East must-see-TV come May.
It's difficult to predict how a conference will shake out after just eight games, but I'm going to try to do it anyway.
Here's how I rank the contenders in the East as of Thursday:
1. Boston Celtics - Make no mistake about it. The Celtics are the top dog in the East. They may not be the most talented team in the conference, but they're definitely the most focused. Boston is 8-1 -- having taken down the Cavaliers, Bulls, Hornets and Jazz in their first nine games - and lead the Eastern Conference in field goal percentage, assists and points allowed. They're the best all-around team in the conference.
Kevin Garnett has come back to Earth statistically, but his impact on the court is unchanged. He's still a ferocious interior defender and captain of the most-feared defense in the league. At 32 years old, Paul Pierce's scoring average has dropped somewhat, but he's shooting a career high 51 percent and he's still one of the
most lethal closers in the game. He and Ray Allen are still the most formidable late-game duo in the NBA. Allen's three-point cold streak notwithstanding, the Big Three look as dangerous as ever. Rajon Rondo's frequent double-doubles don't hurt either.
KG's knee injury last season proved how much
the Celtics depend on him. If he can stay healthy, Boston is the favorite to represent the East in the NBA Finals. If he's not, Pierce, Allen and company will have to hope that Rasheed Wallace has enough in the tank to carry them down the stretch. Either way, the Celtics should go deep into the playoffs again this season.
2. Orlando Magic - The Magic are stacked with talent. They're like Noah's Ark. They have two good players at each position. Jason Williams, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat. Orlando has a bench loaded with playmakers, bangers, outside shooters and defensive stoppers, making them arguably the deepest and most versatile team in the NBA.
The Magic's deep bench is not where their advantage stops. They also have one of the most talented starting five's in the league. Dwight Howard is the most dominant center in the game today. Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson are All-Star caliber players. Mickael Pietrus is a world class athlete. And Vince Carter is a seven time All-Star who has been named to multiple All-NBA teams. That's a loaded starting five.
Even Mel Gibson is jealous of how loaded that starting squad is.
On paper, the Magic are a terrific team. On the court, they've been just above average so far. Road losses to Detroit and Oklahoma City tarnish their record; even if they were playing
without the suspended Rashard Lewis. And Wednesday's home court loss to the Cavaliers was an embarrassment. Right now, though, greatness is too much to ask given the variety of changes the Magic made this summer. Once they get Lewis back, they'll need time to gel and get used to a new rotation. Soon they'll start to look like a championship contender again. Stan Van Gundy knows how to whip a team into shape. By the end of the season they'll be challenging Boston as the team to beat in the East.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers -
Offseason changes aside, this Cavaliers team is very similar team to the one that bowed out in the Eastern Conference Finals last season. For better or worse, the 2010 Cavaliers are a team built around defense, outside shooting and isolations for LeBron James. Shaquille O'Neal is a key addition for one reason and one reason only: he'll keep Dwight Howard from having a monster game when the Cavs play the Magic. Other than that, he's not much of a difference-maker; especially not when Mike Brown plays him at the same time as Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
When it comes down to it, there are two ways for fans to look at the similarity between the Cavs in '08-09 and the Cavs in '09-10. One way is to say, "Great! We're returning a team that won 66 games last year and dominated the regular season!" That's the glass half full approach. The other way is to shake your head incredulously at the idea of LeBron, Shaq and three guys who shrink under the bright lights taking on deep, multi-dimensional teams like Boston and Orlando in the playoffs. That's the realistic approach.
Ultimately, LeBron is the most talented player in the NBA. His basketball ability and physical presence are unmatched. Under most circumstances he can't be stopped. But no matter how good LeBron is, he needs teammates who can make a big shot every once in a while. Michael Jordan
had teammates like that. So did Larry Bird. And so does Kobe Bryant. Until LeBron's supporting cast measures up, there will be no title in Cleveland.
4. Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks are a roller coaster team. One game they're in an absolute funk, losing to the Bobcats by 20 points. The next game they're beating the Nuggets by 25. It's night and day with this team. They're difficult to figure out. What's not difficult to figure out is the amount of talent on Atlanta's roster. They're loaded with scorers and athletic swingmen. Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith. They're all legitimate 20 point scorers. Even Jeff Teague is
capable of filling it up; though it's probably too early in his NBA career to prove it.
What makes Atlanta's offense so incredible, though, is their ball movement. The Hawks are one of the best passing teams in the league. They average 21 assists per game against just 12.6 turnovers. Everyone in their starting lineup is a good passer. From Bibby to Smith to Al Horford, they all have an innate sense of distribution. That's why their offense works as well as it does. That's why they score nearly 107 points per game.
As unselfish and talented as they are, the Hawks are still one of the worst defensive teams in the East. Horford is undersized, Bibby is slow, and Smith gambles too much. They're a shoddy defensive unit. Nothing short of a roster shake up will change that. As such, the Hawks will be one of the most entertaining teams to watch during the regular season, but they'll ultimately bow out to a team that's able to get stops. Sorry, Hawks fans. That's just the nature of playoff basketball.
5. Miami Heat - Contrary to popular belief - and historical evidence -- the Heat are not a one-man team. Dwyane Wade is getting more help from his supporting cast this season than he has in years past. Michael Beasley is showing more maturity on the court, Mario Chalmers has improved his outside shooting and Quentin Richardson has been playing solid perimeter defense. Mix in Jermaine O'Neal, Udonis Haslem and Daequan Cook, and the Heat are looking like a solid team.
Though Miami doesn't stand out in any particular statistical category, they've enjoyed a terrific start to the season. As of Thursday, they were sitting atop the Southeast Division with a 6-1 record. The main difference is that the Heat look smoother this season, more polished. Beasley is cutting to the lane with authority, instead of settling for outside shots. Wade is making the extra pass. And Richardson is playing the consummate role player, doing all of the little things that the team needs to win.
The Heat are playing terrific basketball. With that said, they have a number of question marks. One, can O'Neal stay healthy for a full season? Two, can Chalmers and Richardson continue to stay hot from the perimeter? And, three, can Beasley continue to mature into the number two scorer the Heat need so badly to complement Wade? If the answer is "yes" to all of those questions, Miami will be the third or fourth best team in the East in the playoffs. Otherwise, they'll get the number five seed and battle it out with Atlanta for the right to advance.
6. Chicago Bulls - The Bulls are a young team that plays with heart. Although they're one of the worst offensive teams in the East, the Bulls win with defense, rebounding and toughness. Joakim Noah is a big reason for that. The wild-eyed forward has come into his own this season, averaging 11.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. Noah sets the tone for Chicago's relentless attack. He refuses to give ground, fighting on nearly every possession. It's a crime he wasn't included
on the All-Star ballot this season.
Along with Noah's breakout, the return of swingman Luol Deng has been transformational for the Bulls. After multiple injuries, Deng is back at full strength this season. That shows in the numbers (Deng leads the team in scoring) as well as on the defensive end (where Deng has been excellent). He has been terrific so far this season.
The Bulls may be having a tough time scoring, but their roster is loaded with talent. Taj Gibson was a steal in the draft, and John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich are underrated contributors. They'll get the offense rolling eventually. Unfortunately, the Bulls will likely face a dominant team like Orlando or Cleveland in the playoffs, meaning Derrick Rose will have to play out of his mind again if the Bulls hope to advance. It probably won't happen, but, with Rose involved, you can't rule anything out.
7. Toronto Raptors - The Raptors are the Suns of the East: all offense, all the time. They were a good offensive team last season, but the addition of Hedo Turkoglu has made them even more dangerous. With four players (Turkoglu, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon) capable of making shots from anywhere on the court, the Raptors are nearly impossible to defend. It's no surprise they're leading the East in scoring.
On the defensive end it's another story. The Raptors play a small starting lineup to accommodate their offense, which puts them at a defensive disadvantage. Side note: you know your defense is bad
when Matt Bonner is dunking on you. Bosh is a capable defender, but he's not big enough to defend the Dwight Howard's and Brook Lopez's of the league. Likewise, Bargnani is not strong enough to keep opposing power forwards out of the lane. As a result, Toronto is at the bottom of the conference in both rebounding and points allowed.
That doesn't mean Toronto is a playoff possum, though. Jay Triano has this team playing a more physical brand of basketball than they've played in the past. Bargnani is playing aggressive and rookie Demar DeRozan is a defensive specialist in the making. The Raptors are scrappy and versatile enough to put up a good fight against Orlando or Cleveland. Keep an eye on them in the postseason.
8. Washington Wizards - Wizards fans are tired of hearing about misfortune. They have had too many injuries over the years and too much bad luck. Unfortunately, that's how this season has begun for the Wizards as well. Shoulder injuries
have kept Antawn Jamison and
Mike Miller out of the lineup recently, and the Wizards have suffered for it. Instead of starting Jamison and Miller, the Wizards have had to make due with DeShawn Stevenson and Andray Blatche. Blatche has played well, but Stevenson has not, leaving Washington with an uncomfortably unbalanced backcourt. To make matters worse, Caron Butler has begun the season ice cold, shooting just 39 percent from the field.
With that said, it's only a matter of time before the Wizards right the ship. After awhile the injuries and the slow starts will fade away. Jamison and Miller will return. Butler will find his stroke. And Gilbert Arenas will find a way to
manage fewer than 12 turnovers. At that point, the Wizards will start rolling. Flip Saunders will breathe a big sigh of relief. And the push to catch Detroit and Philadelphia for the final playoff spot will begin.
If the push starts soon enough - say, February - the Wizards will be fine. They'll make the playoffs, no problem. If it begins later than that, though, there could be some issues. Like, missing the playoffs for the second year in a row-type issues. In other words, Wizards fans should hope Jamison and Miller have quick recoveries.
9. Detroit Pistons - It's been a strange season in Detroit. Regulars Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince have been injured, allowing newcomers like Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Austin Daye and Jonas Jerebko
to forge a new team identity. With Gordon and third-year point guard Rodney Stuckey running the fast break at every opportunity, this feels less like the Pistons and more like the Chicago Bulls, but it's been working pretty well. As of Thursday, the Pistons are 4-4, including a signature win over Orlando.
Ben Wallace is back in Detroit, resulting in widespread flashbacks to 2005. Big Ben was on the brink of retirement this summer, but he's been effective so far, averaging 9.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks through eight games. Meanwhile, the "other Ben," Ben Gordon, has been red hot, scoring 24 points per game. (So much for him not being able to handle a starter's role.) Detroit has an outside chance of making the playoffs, but that depends on whether or not they can maintain the same level of chemistry when Hamilton and Prince return. Given the
histories of Gordon and
Hamilton, that seems unlikely.
10. Philadelphia 76ers - Fans knew losing Andre Miller would have a negative effect on the 76ers, but no one thought it was going to be this bad. The Sixers have been horrible this season. In eight games, they've beaten only three teams, all of which are among the worst teams in the East: Milwaukee, New York and New Jersey. Yes, Philly is 4-4 (they beat New Jersey twice), but so are the Sacramento Kings. A .500 record means nothing. The Sixers are allowing opponents to shoot over 48 percent, and they have yet to beat a team of consequence. They're mediocre at best. Andre Iguodala has been fantastic as usual, averaging 20 points per game,
but Elton Brand has been awful, and Thaddeus Young has been maddeningly inconsistent. Barring a major trade, the Sixers will be lucky to sneak into the playoffs.
11. Milwaukee Bucks - Having lost players like Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions in the offseason, the Bucks have turned primarily into a defensive team. Scott Skiles has always been a hard-nosed coach. This season the Bucks have taken on his identity. Boston is the only team that surrenders fewer points per game than Milwaukee, and the Bucks lead the East in rebounding and turnovers created. Not bad for a team that allowed 100.4 points per game last season.
Michael Redd's inevitable injury obviously handicaps the Bucks offensively, but rookie Brandon Jennings should be able to pick up some of the slack. Jennings is averaging 18.4 points and 4.4 assists this season, and has far exceeded league-wide expectations. Look for the Bucks to swing a midseason trade involving Redd to get Jennings some help for the future. Other than that, it will be an uneventful season in Milwaukee.
12. Indiana Pacers - The Pacers are lopsided. They're good in certain areas (rebounding, blocked shots) and terrible in others (playmaking, three-point shooting). Talent-wise, Indiana is in a tough position. Brandon Rush and Troy Murphy would not be starting for most NBA teams. That isn't so much a problem on defense, where Rush is above average. But on offense Danny Granger and T.J. Ford are asked to carry too much of the load. When Granger has a bad game - and he's had his share of them this season - it's difficult for Indiana to mount an effective attack. Another problem for the Pacers is that they're overly reliant on the three ball. They take a lot of outside shots, but make only 27 percent of them. This barrage of threes stagnates the offense and leads to poor possessions. It's difficult to win games that way. Jim O'Brien is a good coach, but the Pacers just don't have the personnel to make it to the playoffs. Fans are in store for another year of treading water.
13. Charlotte Bobcats - The Bobcats shouldn't be this awful. Really, they shouldn't be. Larry Brown is a good coach. Gerald Wallace is a good captain. And the Bobcats' roster has a lot of promise. Unfortunately, the sum of Charlotte's parts hasn't been a success. Tyson Chandler is an awkward fit. He struggles to score in the post, and the team doesn't have enough firepower to make up for it. Nobody on the team has a scoring average higher than 15 points per game. That's pathetic. Even with the Bucks and the struggling Nets in the same conference, the Bobcats rank dead last in the East in scoring. That's even more pathetic.
Defensively, Charlotte isn't half bad. In fact, they're one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA; thanks in no small part to Wallace,
who leads the league in rebounding. But offensively the Bobcats are overmatched. They don't have the shooters to compete. It's as simple as that. Last year Charlotte appeared to be on the cusp of playoff contention, but they're not making good on that promise in 2009-10.
14. New York Knicks - The Knicks are a dead team walking. They've sacrificed the season at the altar of LeBron, clearing cap room for the "chosen one" with reckless abandon and a clear disregard for their fans. There's no pride in New York; at least not this season. Mike D'Antoni guides this rudderless team. I imagine him walking in the door every night and pouring himself a nice, tall glass of scotch. With starters like Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes and David Lee, there's no way they'll make the playoffs. Danilo Gallinari has been a lone bright spot, but that's not nearly enough to offset the unbearable season ahead. It's going to be hellacious for Knicks fans. Is LeBron worth it?
15. New Jersey Nets - The Nets have been wracked by injury. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Yi Jianlian, Keyon Dooling and Tony Battie have all caught the injury bug, and will spend a significant amount of time on injured reserve. That leaves Brook Lopez and rookie Terrence Williams to carry the load. Lopez has had a monster year so far, but there's no way he can carry this team on his own. Nobody could. Not when Edward Najera and Bobby Simmons are prominently involved.
Williams has sworn off Twitter until New Jersey gets its first win. He may have to wait awhile.
Of course, as soon as I peg the Celtics as The Untouchable in the East they lose two straight games and look like crap against Indiana. Figures.